ITC debates Demographic change and Transport
Demographic Change: what will this mean for Transport in Britain?
UK population profile
The Office for National Statistics has forecast that the UK population will increase to over 70 million over the next two decades and predicts we are on course to become the most populous nation in the EU. Due to an ageing population the ONS also expects that the number of over 65s will increase by more than 5 million over the same period. Meanwhile household composition is dramatically changing, driven by factors such as later parenthood, high house prices, and migration to South-East England. How will these changes affect transport and land use in Britain over the years ahead? And what do we need to do in order adequately to prepare our transport systems for these changes?
To debate these issues, the ITC invited leading experts to a Discussion Evening on 19th February 2013. Kris Beuret OBE, ITC Commissioner and Director of Social Research Associates, chaired the evening. Discussion was preceded by short presentations from a distinguished panel comprising: Dr John Disney, Senior Lecturer at Nottingham Business School; Ann Frye OBE, a Visiting Professor at University College London; and Peter Headicar, Reader in Transport Planning at Oxford Brookes University.
Guests debate Demographic Change
The Guest Speakers focused on a number of key aspects:
- John Disney focused on changes affecting young people, and noted contrasts between the generations. While the ‘baby boomer’ generation tended to see car ownership as a key rite of passage when young, he noted that the current generation of under-30s were now more interested in mobile technology. He added that major changes were affecting the travel behaviour of young people relative to their parents, including greater participation in higher education, high accommodation costs, poorer employment prospects and higher costs of travel and car insurance. Dr Disney stressed the need to better understand these dramatic lifestyle changes, and requested that the DfT incorporate more demographic information into their data collection.
- Ann Frye spoke to participants about the effect of an ageing population on transport. She noted a correlation between age and disability which made it likely that the number of mobility impaired people would increase. At the same time, she stressed that travel was an intrinsic need and helped sustain social, mental and physical health for older people. It was therefore crucial that there was adequate provision for mobility-impaired travellers, using universal and intuitive design to ensure that suitable infrastructure was built. In addition, she noted it was important to recognise that the ‘baby boomer’ generation were strongly wedded to the car and were often reluctant to use public transport, and measures should be taken to address this.
Ann Frye OBE addresses the audience
- Peter Headicar explored the relationship between demographic change and land use patterns. He illustrated the dramatic rise in urban living that had accompanied the sharp rise in population growth since the 1990s. While there had been migration by middle-aged and older people to the shires, younger people and migrants were increasingly choosing to live in cities. If these trends continued, he argued, they would have profound consequences for transport, contributing towards a stagnation in car travel, and increasing the need for urban public transport provision. He added that we should be aware of the possible effects of policy drivers behind these trends, such as the encouragement of brownfield development in recent decades.
Sir Patrick Brown raises a question
Among the key themes raised in the subsequent discussion were the following issues. Guests noted that we need to investigate further whether or not current trends will continue, and a number of participants suggested that it will be important to adapt transport provision to accommodate changing needs.One key question raised was whether changes in behaviour were driven by socio-economic or attitudinal factors? A common theme was that we should consider the impact of technology on older people, and should question whether differences in urban and rural demographics will continue to widen? Finally, a number of participants argued that we should also consider what has not changed over recent decades. These included the observation that average daily travel time remained about an hour per day across societies. While our choice of modes might change, the need to provide for regular travel might not diminish.